Nate Silver (the guy whose predictions for the last presidential election were right on) has a website called FiveThirtyEight.com. In his sports section he has a neat forecasting model for the NCAA tournament. He calculates the chance of each team reaching each round, taking into account a composite of power rankings, pre-season rankings, the team’s placement on the NCAA’s 68-team S-curve, player injuries and geography. After each round it is updated so the odds change based on outcomes. Click here for the page with the odds shown in bracket form or table form. I thought it would be interesting to see how the teams with the highest chance of winning it all turn out.
Right now the top teams and their chance % follows:
Univ. of Arizona 13%
Michigan State 6%
Wichita State 5%
Lets see how it plays out.