NCAA Statistical Predictions

NCAA predictions

Nate Silver (the guy whose predictions for the last presidential election were right on) has a website called  In his sports section he has a neat forecasting model for the NCAA tournament.  He calculates the chance of each team reaching each round, taking into account a composite of power rankings, pre-season rankings, the team’s placement on the NCAA’s 68-team S-curve, player injuries and geography.  After each round it is updated so the odds change based on outcomes.  Click here for the page with the odds shown in bracket form or table form.  I thought it would be interesting to see how the teams with the highest chance of winning it all turn out.

Right now the top teams and their chance % follows:

Louisville 15%
Florida 15%
Univ. of Arizona 13%
Kansas 7%
Virginia 6%
Michigan State 6%
Wichita State 5%

Lets see how it plays out.

NCAA predictions


Author: Geoff

Quick rundown: Grew up in Lombard, Illinois, went to Arizona State University, worked as a CPA with Arthur Andersen & Co, then Laventhal and Horwath, then Rolling Stones, then Heron International, then Goodby Berlin and Silverstein in San Francisco. Moved to the foothills in 1990 and traded futures and designed websites. Married to Kate Stewart, now living in Colfax, CA. We have six grandchildren. I enjoy camping in our RV, hiking, kayaking, fishing, droning and cross country skiing Also conga drumming, photography and dogs.

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