Other Stock Indexes Lagging the Dow

Even though the Dow has made new highs, and looks quite strong here at around 14,300, the S&P still has to exceed 1576 to take out its highs and its just at 1541.  This lack of confirmation by the other indices is a bit of a warning not to be too exuberant and protective stops would be in order.

S and P monthly chart

The Nasdaq 100 is nowhere near its highs of 4816 in March 2000 but more importantly its not even taken out its highs from last September 2878 and seems to have fallen back when it stuck its nose above 2800, closing today at 2792. The weekly chart still looks like a big Head and Shoulders pattern, quite bearish.

nasdaq 100 weekly chart

The Russell 2000 small caps has made new lifetime highs a couple weeks ago, but on this latest rally it has not been able to break above those and on a weekly chart it looks like its getting an ADX peak sell signal.   This could come about in weeks or days but it will result in some sort of pull back.

Russell 2000 weekly chart

Market Indexes at 2/1/13

Dow: On a long-term basis looking at the monthly charts .. all is bullish, with a couple of caveats.  Its nearing the previous high of 14,198 but has yet to take it out.  The ADX is not showing a strong trend, as compared to say 06,07,08 since it’s under 30.  It hasn’t tagged the upper Bollinger bands since early 2011, a failure to do so is a strong indicator of waning momentum.  So we need to see what happens in February.

dowmon2-1-13

The weekly charts dow chart, however, has all indicators pointing up.  Pushing the upper BB channel, strong Ergonomic, trending ADX but not overbought. Continue reading “Market Indexes at 2/1/13”