In August, in fact the week ended 8/21/2015, the market made a significant turn. The weekly indicators (moving averages, linear regression curves) turned bearish for the first time since 7/2011. The Dow downside targets are 14,500-13,700 or as low as 11,000 S&P downside target 1560-1400 The SPY is the ETF that tracks the S&P and […]
Since everyone is watching the great gas prices of January, disappear I thought I would put up a chart on oil futures. My wife noted that she paid 2.19/gal for gas in January while now it is at 3.29 here in Colfax, CA. The downswing in oil has brought the price of MLPs down to […]
The Nasdaq 100 has gone from 1040 to over 3600 since 3/09, just less than 5 years. Looking at the monthly chart, the ADX shows it’s in dangerous territory, overbought and due for a correction. But before taking profits or shorting I would be looking for the ADX to cut down from this level, the […]
The S&P continued toward my target in the 1600 area, in fact I believe it hit the 1.618 Fibonacci move today and could retrace from here. Several indicators of that possibility. It is way beyond its upper Bollinger Band, it is possibly forming its third bearish divergence against the Ergodic momentum indicator, and it has […]
The S&P is 25 points away from its all time high at 1576, so it has yet to confirm the Dow record. However it put in a strong week and other than the ADX which is giving a cautionary signal, all seems well. The markets are up, not because the economy is so great but […]
Even though the Dow has made new highs, and looks quite strong here at around 14,300, the S&P still has to exceed 1576 to take out its highs and its just at 1541. This lack of confirmation by the other indices is a bit of a warning not to be too exuberant and protective stops […]
Yesterday gave a confirmed VIX buy signal. The last four of these signals have delivered the goods, however, the last confirmed sell signal took two weeks before a dip and that wasnt even to the level of when it occurred. The chart below is courtesy of Springheel Jack.
Well two up days in a row seem to have voided the big drop on Monday (2/25) however this all seems to be a normal pull back to the 50/10 LRC lines and the volatility stops. On the Nasdaq 100 the 50/10 have crossed under bearish and the 25/5 is already below the 50/10. Unless […]
Last week I posted that the Russell 2000 was foretelling of an upcoming bear move. Generally small caps lead the way. After a bounce Friday to the 50/10 LRCs and giving the 25/5s time to cross below the 50/10s, the market is now resumed its down move. There was a bounce this morning but it […]
Quite a reversal today with the Nasdaq 100 down 1.5% and the Russell 2000 (RUT – small caps) down almost 2%. Looking at the daily chart the RUT sliced through the 50/10 LRC and actually took out the volatility stop. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq stopped right above their Volatility stops but in my experience, […]
The Nasdaq 100 has been going sideways now for over a month, while the other markets Dow, SP, and Russell have been trending upward (at least till the end of Jan). Look at this hourly chart of the NDX. Simply buying around 2725 and selling around 2745 you would have made 20 handles 7 times […]
I found this chart on Zerohedge today and was amazed at its symmetry and the likelihood of it playing out. However, I think the SP could drop to even lower than 1100. It is way overdue.
Apple has had a tremendous, parabolic rise followed by a huge drop from 705 to 435, over 38% drop in price, in market value. Wow! But after such a meteoric rise what would one expect. (Interesting that 38% is a Fibonacci number.) Here is the daily chart first. Strong downtrend but not oversold per ADX. […]
Dow: On a long-term basis looking at the monthly charts .. all is bullish, with a couple of caveats. Its nearing the previous high of 14,198 but has yet to take it out. The ADX is not showing a strong trend, as compared to say 06,07,08 since it’s under 30. It hasn’t tagged the upper […]
The S&P appears to be on its way toward 1576, the high in 2007. Looking at the daily and weekly charts, everything is pointed up and now that it took out resistance at the Sept. 2012 highs, and the debt ceiling issue has been put off for 3 months, or appears to be… I don’t […]